The concept of the “fog of war,” as noted by the great Carl von Clausewitz—the uncertainty in the awareness of the situation experienced by participants and observers in military operations—has taken on new meaning in a world where we have access to all information, due to the disinformation, image propaganda, and fake news (hoaxes). With this factor in mind, the siege of Mariupol will be recounted with as much accuracy and objectivity as possible, considering as factual only that which is confirmed by social media and open-source intelligence (OSINT). However, every news outlet may potentially be biased in favor of one side or the other, so drawing conclusions is up to each individual reader.

Opposing Forces

Ukraine:

• 12th Brigade “Dmytro Vyshnevetsky”: A military formation of the National Guard of Ukraine. In the city, there were one battalion and two companies from the Brigade.
• Special Operations Detachment “Azov” Regiment: Included ten T-64B1M tanks.
• 36th Marine Brigade: The 501st Battalion, equipped with T-80BV tanks, was stationed in the city.
• 503rd Independent Marine Battalion: Fully deployed.
• 109th Brigade of Territorial Units
• KORD Rapid Response Police Unit,
• Coast Guard Personnel
• 56th Mechanized Brigade: Most of its forces were in Donetsk as of January.

A total force of approximately 7,500-8,000 men with a small number of tanks and artillery elements.

Russia/DPR

• 150th Motorized Rifle Division, 8th Guards Combined Arms Army: The main force of the Russian offensive consisted of units from this division, including two Motorized Rifle Regiments (102nd and 103rd) and two Tank Regiments (68th and 163rd), primarily equipped with T-72B3 tanks.
• 19th Motorized Rifle Division, 58th Army: Three Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) were sent from the southern sector to cover the southwest side of the city, with limited engagement.
• 810th Marine Brigade: Comprised of veterans from the Syrian Civil War, along with the 177th Marine Regiment of the Caspian Sea Fleet. The Russian Marine Corps was equipped with BTR-80 and BTR-82A wheeled vehicles, MTLBs, BMP-2 Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFVs), 122mm 2S1 Gvozdika and 152mm 2S3 Akatsiya self-propelled artillery, UAVs, and electronic warfare systems.
• 22nd and 346th Spetsnaz Brigades (GRU/GU): Elite forces equipped with armored vehicles such as the “Tiger,” “Rys,” and “Typhoon,” alongside Chechen units from the Rosgvardiya.
• Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) Separatists: At least five Battalion Tactical Groups, including the 9th Marine Regiment “Mariupol-Kingan” and the 1st Tank Battalion “Somalia,” which were equipped with T-64BV and T-72 tanks, BMP-1 IFVs, BTR-70s, MT-LBs, BRDM-2 armored vehicles, and supporting artillery and mortars.

The total estimated force consisted of approximately 14,000-17,000 men, supported by airpower, hundreds of tanks, IFVs, and various other vehicles. The city was divided into the Primorsky district to the southwest, Zhovtnevyi district to the west, Kalmiuskyi district to the north, and Livoberezhnyi and Vynohradne districts to the east and southeast.

Note: A typical BTG in the Russian Army includes a tank company with 10 tanks and three Motorized Rifle Companies with 40 Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFVs).

The First Skirmishes
On February 27, a Russian column advancing was attacked and forced to retreat, leaving behind six prisoners. On February 28, two Ukrainian T-80 BV tanks were hit in the village of Hranite, 20 km outside of Mariupol. A unit of the “Azov” Regiment successfully attacked a Russian forward detachment, killing at least five separatists and destroying two BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles, while also capturing RPG-18 anti-tank launchers and other equipment. On the same day, it was reported that Russian forces had taken control of the nearby town of Sartana. The separatists attempted to enter the city’s suburb of Staryi Krym with a reconnaissance force but were attacked by mortar fire, coordinated with the help of a drone, resulting in the loss of one truck and one light armored vehicle, an Iveco LMV. This successful tactic would be used repeatedly by the Ukrainians with great effectiveness.

Onset of the Siege
Meanwhile, the defenders of Mariupol were completely cut off from any possible aid or reinforcement. On March 2, Russian Army and separatist forces launched a heavy artillery barrage, including Tochka U 9M79-1 ballistic missiles, on the city. The mayor reported that “today was the hardest day of all seven days of the war. Today, they simply tried to destroy us. But the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the National Guard, and the Azov Regiment stubbornly resisted those attacking our homes.” Of course, he was unaware that this was only the beginning and that the city would face unprecedented destruction.

By March 4, four attacks or reconnaissance attempts by the separatists alongside the Russian Army were reported. Armenian-origin separatist soldiers appeared to have reached Vynohradne, about 4 km from the center of Mariupol, but were repelled. That night, Azov forces detected separatists burying their fallen comrades with thermal cameras. The next day, on March 5, Russian tanks reached the “Metallurgists” statue, 4 km from the city’s northern entrance, which was in extremely difficult condition.

March 7: Ukrainian Counteroffensives
On March 7, Ukrainian forces conducted two successful operations against the besiegers. A number of tanks and armored vehicles from the 102nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 150th Division had inadequate security and perimeter defense west of the Primorsky district (location 47°05’05.0″N 37°29’23.6″E), resulting in their surprise. The tanks were immediately destroyed, except for two that were operational and brought into the city, along with the BMP infantry fighting vehicles. Ukrainian Army and Azov Regiment forces then withdrew into the city. The attack resulted in confirmed losses of 6 T-72B3/Obr 2016 tanks, one T-64BV—likely a Ukrainian tank from the 2014/15 conflict that was recaptured—and 6 BMP-3s.

Another attack led to the destruction of a BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launcher (MRLS), another T-72B3M tank, 26 confirmed dead from photos/videos, and an unknown number of wounded. During this battle, the commander of the 68th Tank Regiment “Zhytomyr-Berlin” was also wounded and hospitalized. Ukrainian forces reported that the Russians/separatists had approximately 100 casualties on that day, though this estimate by the writer may include total losses of killed, wounded, and missing personnel. Significant documents were recovered by the Ukrainians, including information on the involved Russian forces in the area, maps, and a large list of individuals who had either infiltrated the city, were planning to do so, or were already within and would act as saboteurs.

On both March 5 and 6, negotiations were held between the involved parties and preparations were made for the evacuation of civilians, but the failure to implement a ceasefire by either side (each blaming the other) postponed the evacuation.

March 8-9: Russian Advances and Critical Developments

On March 8, Russian forces managed to reach the city’s initial neighborhoods from the east (Primorsky, Zhovtnevyi) and west (Livoberezhni). At this point, they likely suffered another significant loss—the death of Lieutenant Alexei Glushchak from the 22nd Spetsnaz Brigade of the GRU/GU, marking the first casualty of this unit in the war. It was reported that he was killed during combat along with 16 other soldiers from the same unit. 11 of these were officially acknowledged losses from the Russian side and were part of the total casualties in the Battle of Mariupol.

Once again, they obstructed the evacuation of civilians from the “green line” established for this purpose on the eastern side of the city along Highway E58. Meanwhile, the Ukrainians were taking up new positions in the surrounding apartment complexes by placing ATGMs on rooftops.

On March 9, Russian forces captured the northern part of Livoberezhni. Notably, this advance was conducted with BMP-3s, BTR-80/82As, and T-72 tanks moving with infantry support, which was not often the case in this conflict and led to several painful losses for the Russians. Concurrently, artillery fired several rounds of 120mm mortars with guidance from a ZALA 421-08 UAV. The situation in the city remained extremely critical for the residents.

Russian forces advanced into the city, with fierce fighting occurring from block to block and casualties increasing.

The bombardment continued unabated on March 10-11, with self-propelled guns like the 2S7 Pion pulverizing minefields around the city to clear paths for the upcoming assaults. Fighting continued with the same intensity in the eastern part of the city, where the Russians again failed to make a breakthrough, losing a BMP-2 and an ATGM 9M133 Kornet. A group of Russians managed to infiltrate with the support of a T-72 tank, but the tank was hit by an RPG-7 from a close distance of about 40 meters, sustaining damage and forcing the Russians to retreat.

On March 12, the Russians launched strong attacks, always with the support of tanks, both on the western side of the city in the Zovtnevii and to the east in the Liboberezhnyi. In the already heavily damaged city, now in ruins in most areas, the 36th Marine Brigade repelled a new Russian assault, destroying a T-72B3M (or T-90A) and a BTR-82A- photos were also republished on March 26, but they depicted the same vehicles– while the Ukrainian forces lost a BTR-4.

On the following day, on March 13, Russian forces moved vertically (see map below) into the Livoberezhnye district to cut off the entire eastern bank of the Kalmius River and the Azov Regiment forces stationed there. They reached Hraveryi Ln 2 where they came under accurate Ukrainian artillery fire with guidance from UAVs. As a result, the entire column of the 22nd GRU Brigade was obliterated, with 16 vehicles either destroyed, heavily damaged, or abandoned: five BTR-82A APCs, two K-63968 Typhoon-K MRAPs, and nine Tigr-M and Iveco LMV Rys vehicles.

The Russians completely withdrew from the area, and in a later video, Ukrainian soldiers moved in and took control of the location, where enemy vehicles, dead soldiers, and approximately 20 anti-tank launchers were found. Another BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launcher was destroyed, causing rockets to be launched in all directions, potentially causing additional casualties. On the same day, a humanitarian aid convoy from Zaporizhzhia was stopped in Berdyansk by Russian forces, preventing it from continuing to Mariupol.

On March 14, intense fighting led to more material and personnel losses for both sides. The next day a civilian evacuation convoy, about 4,000 vehicles, was attacked by Russian MRLS, likely mistaken for a military column. Reinforcements arrived, including 23 BTR APCs, 15 trucks, and Chechens in Sartana.

The most significant loss for the Russians was the death of Lieutenant General Oleg Mityaev, commander of the 150th Motorized Infantry Division, the fourth Russian general killed up to that day. Two American military officials noted that many Russian generals used unencrypted secure phones and radios, a recurring issue in this war with the publication of Russian communications. The Ukrainians intercepted the general’s call, located it geographically, and attacked the location with artillery, likely resulting in the death of General Oleg Mityaev and his staff. The Azov Regiment suffered additional losses as the encirclement tightened around Mariupol.

On March 16 two Russian T-64BV tanks, apparently captured by the DPR, reached the intersection of Myru Avenue and Budivel’nykiv Avenue, about 600-700 meters from the city center. At this point, they received a barrage of fire from RPG-18s, other anti-tank weapons, and artillery coordinated with the visual assistance of a UAV and they were destroyed.

A tragic event occurred with the bombing of the Regional Municipal Theater, sheltering 500-1,200 civilians. Despite “children” markings on the building for aerial visibility, it was bombed. Initially, Russian sources claimed it was an Azov Battalion base but later retracted, alleging Ukrainian provocation.

Despite the losses and difficulties, it began to appear that the breaches in the city’s defensive positions were now serious. On March 18, Russian forces raised their flag over a public administrative building in Mariupol after clearing the surrounding resistance in the area within the Livoberezhni district on the eastern bank of the city, having made progress from the Vinogradne district.

Throughout this period, relentless shelling devastated about 70% of Mariupol. Comparisons to “new Grozny” or “new Aleppo” were apt, reflecting Russia’s strategy of gradual destruction and indiscriminate targeting to exhaust defenders. This approach aimed to cut off reinforcements and deplete resources, making Mariupol’s fall inevitable. By March 18, Russians had breached the eastern bank and made minor advances. Despite severe losses, the Ukrainian 56th Mechanized Brigade and 36th Marine Brigade held key positions. On March 21, Ukraine rejected Russia’s ultimatum to surrender, demanding the creation of a safe corridor without weapons. On March 22, the airport west of the city was captured as Ukrainians withdrew. A Russian Navy patrol boat, 03160 “Raptor,” was hit by two anti-tank missiles, with one successful hit, marking the first confirmed loss of the Russian Navy in the war. The boat was put out of service and towed.

New Russian losses were published in social media and included 3 BTR-82A, one T-72B, one BMP-3, 2 trucks and another tank. Ukrainian losses included one tank, one BTR-4 and a BRDM-2. The deputy commander of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, Captain Andrey Paliy, and Colonel Alexei Sharov, commander of the 810th Marine Brigade, were killed, adding another high-ranking Russian loss in the Battle of Mariupol.

Even though the outcome was more or less predetermined, the capture of the city still had a long way to go and would require even more bloodshed..

Sources:

Twitter:
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